The recent departure of high-hopefuls Huckabee, Daniels and Trump and the almost immediate self-destruction of legendary conservative fire brand Gingrich have opened the door of opportunity for long shots like Herman Cain along with contenders Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Sarah Palin. But it is a growing and seemingly irreconcilable conundrum within the new Tea Partied GOP that promises to thwart their efforts as well as those of presumed favorite Mitt Romney.
The issue boils down to who can unite the party (appease the Tea Party, embrace Paul Ryan’s budget cuts) but still make it to the White House in November 2012 by derailing Obama’s seemingly unstoppable version of the legendary Lake Shore Ltd. The LSL is a celebrated daily train which has ferried rail travelers from the northeast United States to the heartland of America, terminating at Union Station in Chicago, for over 100 years. (See Figure 1 Below)
The Lake Shore Ltd was the marquee train of the great New York Central Railroad. It actually begins as two separate trains, one originating in Boston, the other in New York. At Albany, NY the trains are combined for their journey along the shores of lakes Erie and Ontario before ending on the southern shore of Lake Michigan at Chicago.
Through the decades the Lake Shore Ltd. has played a key role in American politics. Its vast reach into America’s densely populated northeastern and upper Midwestern states made it a popular choice for presidential “whistle-stop” campaigning. It was from the rear platform of the train that a photographer snapped the iconic picture of President Harry Truman holding a newspaper with the headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman” when in fact Truman had won the contest.
The importance of a viable Lake Shore Ltd. strategy in the 2012 Presidential Campaign can be appreciated by comparing the spidery network of the New York Central railroad and the 2012 map of the Electoral landscape (See Figure 2 below)
Even with continuing population shifts away from the traditional Democratic strongholds of the rust belt, if President Obama captured the same states in 2012 as he did in 2008, he would still easily sail by the 270 ECV minimum for a total of 359 votes in the Electoral College. If Obama gave back his 2008 wins in VA, NC, FL, CO, NM & NV he still glides into a second term with 282 ECVs.
Except for 2008, recent Presidential elections have shown that every vote in every state can be determinate in who sits in the Oval Office for four years. In such a setting, the traditional “favorite son” factor of the home state of the candidate cannot be ignored. But even considering a continuation of the scenario in the previous paragraph, Tim Pawlenty (MN-10) and Mitt Romney (MA -11) would each still fall just short of the 270 tally.
The reality is the GOP is desperately seeking someone who can win the strong grassroots support of the Tea Party yet still stay close enough to the middle of the road to have some hope of derailing Obama’s Lake Shore Limited juggernaut. There is no doubt that this reality is growing seriously obvious within the GOP star chambers. The purported public and private overtures to New Jersey’s Chris Christie to enter the race are a key indicator that Republicans are starting to see the absolute necessity of a Lake Shore Ltd. strategy.
In the final analysis success for the GOP comes down to winning one or more of the big states. And winning one of those states comes down to rallying enough suburban, small town and rural support to offset obvious high percentage loses in the large metropolitan areas. But with 80% of Americans solidly opposed to the proposed Ryan budget cuts to Medicare, then barring a dramatic change in the current dynamics, success is highly unlikely.
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